The job indicators in Canada
The Canadian staffing index, which reflects the volume of demand for temporary staffing in Canada, fell 2% in July on a year-over-year basis to a reading of 111, despite July 2019 having more working days. The index was up 11% over June.
Canada added 73,700 jobs in July from June, according to the "ADP Canada National Employment Report". July’s gain follows two months of declines, according to the report. Canada lost 10,000 jobs in June and lost 37,000 jobs in May.
Canada shed 24,200 jobs in July compared to June for total employment of 19.03 million, but the loss amounts to little change, according to Statistics Canada. However, on a year-over-year basis, the number of jobs was up by 353,000. In addition, the unemployment rate edged up to 5.7% in July from 5.5% in June.
The job indicators in the US
Most economists believe there will be a US recession in either 2020 or 2021, but they are split on which year it will hit, according to the "2019 NABE Economic Policy Survey." The survey results found 38% believed there would be a recession in 2020, and 34% believed a recession would take place in 2021.
US real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.0% in the second quarter, according to a second estimate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is slower than the previously released "advance estimate" that reported growth of 2.1%. GDP rose 3.1% in the first quarter.
Americans are feeling better about their jobs than they have in years, according to a survey released by The Conference Board. More than half of US workers, 53.7% are satisfied with their jobs, according to The Conference Board Job Satisfaction survey. This is up from 51.7% in the prior year and marks the second-biggest increase in the survey’s 32-year history. An improved labor market has played the main role in boosting job satisfaction, which has risen in each of the past eight years.
Consumer confidence eased a bit this month, but still remains strong, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. And while a higher percentage of consumers this month said jobs are "plentiful," they were less upbeat on the outlook going forward. In addition, tariffs and trade tensions pose worries.
After two months of declines, The Conference Board reported its US Leading Economic Index rose in July, portending growth for the second half of this year but at a slower rate. July’s index reading rose 0.5% to 112.2 (2016=100) following a 0.1% decline in June, and a 0.1% decline in May.
The number of IT jobs in the US rose for the fourth month in a row in July, but the rate of growth remains slow and the US may be approaching zero growth, according to data analysis by the TechServe Alliance, the national trade association for the IT and engineering staffing and solutions industry. IT employment ticked up just 0.03% in July from June and was up just 0.06% on a year-over-year basis — which is an increase of just 3,000 IT workers on a net basis. There were approximately 5.35 million IT jobs in the US in July, according to the TechServe Alliance
Engineering employment, on the other hand, has increased by 0.17% in July from June to almost 2.67 million jobs, according to the analysis by the organization. On a year-over-year basis, engineering jobs had risen by 2.17%.
Nonmanufacturing growth slowed in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s Nonmanufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which fell to a reading of 53.7 in July from 55.1 in June. Bloomberg reported the reading was the lowest since 2016. The average reading for the index over the last 12 months was 57.6.
Technology employment in the US rose by an estimated 11,400 jobs in July even as telecom companies eliminated some 5,100 positions, according to an analysis by tech industry association CompTIA. CompTIA, which examined data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation report, found that July was solid month of hiring in technology services, custom software development and computer systems design. Hiring in these areas offset losses in telecom.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the first time since 2008. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index decelerated and jobless claims rose. In its statement on rates, the Federal Reserve noted the US labor market remains strong, saying jobs gains have been solid and unemployment low.
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index decelerated in June to a reading of 51.7 from May’s reading of 52.1. Readings above 50 still indicate growth, but MarketWatch reported the index’s growth was at its lowest level in three years.
The job indicators outside North America
The euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stood at 7.5% in June 2019, down from 8.2% in June 2018 and the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since July 2008, according to data from Eurostat.
At the same time, the EU 28 unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in June 2019, down from 6.8% in June 2018. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the EU 28 since the start of the EU monthly unemployment series in January 2000.
While employers’ confidence in the UK economy remains low, they are still looking to hire, according to the Recruitment and Employment Confederation’s latest JobsOutlook report. The JobsOutlook report shows that confidence levels are at net: -26, a fall of 1% from the previous rolling quarter. However, despite the lower confidence levels in the economy, employers are still looking to hire. Forecast demand for permanent staff increased to net +19 in the short-term and net +21 in the medium-term in May-July 2019, compared to the net +16 and net +18 recorded in the previous quarter (February-April 2019).
Employment growth slowed in Germany. The number of people employed in Germany rose by 358,000 people, or 0.8% in July compared to July 2018, Statistisches Bundesamt reported. That’s lower than the year-over-year growth of 0.9% in June, 0.9% in May and 1.0% in April. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed persons rose to 1.35 million in July from 1.34 million in June, an increase of approximately 700,000. Reuters reported Germany’s economy is sputtering and adding to expectations that there will be a European Central bank stimulus package next month.
The Swiss-registered unemployment rate stood at 2.1% in July 2019, down from 2.4% in July 2018, according to figures from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.
Renewed demand for workers and a signal of improved Australian economic activity later this year have provided some encouraging signs at a time of a deteriorating global economy, reports The Advocate.
New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by 0.5% in the June quarter to 3.9% when compared to the same period last year, according to data from Statistics New Zealand. The June quarters’ unemployment rate is the lowest since June 2008, when it was 3.8%.
The unemployment rate in Taiwan increased by 0.01% to 3.82% in July 2019 when compared to the same period last year, according to the latest Manpower Survey from the Directorate General of Budget Accounting & Statistics.
China’s job market remained generally stable in the first seven months of the year, reports Xinhua.net, citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics. A total of 8.67 million new urban jobs were created during the January-July period with the surveyed urban unemployment rate rising 0.2% to 5.3% last month.