The economy – Canada
The Conference Board of Canada expects the Canadian economy to grow by 1.9% in 2019, easing from an expected 2.1% gain this year. Canada’s economy faces headwinds on several fronts. Consumer spending will be restrained by a combination of weaker employment and wage growth, high debt loads, and rising interest rates. Meanwhile, the drop in oil prices and lack of pipeline capacity will continue to constrain investment in Canada’s energy sector. Government spending is also expected to slow due to rising fiscal deficits.
The Canadian staffing index, which measures staffing activity in Canada, was unchanged in October on a year-over-year basis at a reading of 120.
Canadian employers expect slow-but-steady gains in employment, according to the first-quarter Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. Canadian organizations plan to add staff across all 10 industry sectors in the first quarter.
Employment in Canada rose by 94,100 jobs in November, driven by gains in full-time work, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from Statistics Canada. Full-time jobs increased by about 89,900 and part-time employment rose by about 4,100.
The economy – US
US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, according to the third estimate of GDP growth by the US Commerce Department. The new estimate is down from the previous estimate of 3.5%. The general picture of economic growth remains the same; positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment. Real GDP for the US increased 4.2% in the second quarter.
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index edged up 0.2% in November from October to a reading of 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3% decline in October and a 0.6% increase in September.
Workers’ confidence in the US rebounded in the third quarter to its highest level since early 2017. After falling for the first time in a year during the second quarter, staffing provider Yoh and HRO Today magazine reported their quarterly Worker Confidence index rose by 3.1 points to a level of 107.4 in the third quarter — the highest level since the first quarter of 2017 and the second-highest reading in the index’s nearly four-year history.
US private sector output continued to increase at a solid pace in December, but a slowdown in the service economy contributed to the weakest overall growth for just over one-and-a-half years, according to the IHS Markit Flash US Purchasing Managers Index. Flash US Composite Output Index fell to a 19-month low of 53.6 in December, down from 54.7 in November
The Conference Board’s US Employment Trends Index declined slightly in November following an increase in October; however, the year-over-year change remains positive. The index slipped to a reading of 110.41 in November from 110.73 in October.
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November at a faster pace than in October, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index for US manufacturing. November’s index reading registered 59.3, up from October’s reading of 57.7. Any reading above 50% generally indicates improving conditions.
US employers report their strongest hiring intentions in 12 years, according to the first-quarter Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. The US ranked among the strongest outlooks for hiring among the 44 countries surveyed in the report. Other countries with solid hiring outlooks included Japan, Taiwan, Slovenia and Greece.
The US private sector added 179,000 jobs in November, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The gain compares to an increase of 225,000 jobs in October and an increase of 209,000 in September.
Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics maintained their prior growth projections for the US economy in 2018, the association announced today. The median forecast calls for real GDP growth of 2.9% on an annual basis this year, unchanged from the October 2018 forecast. For 2019, respondents still predict a 2.7% annual growth rate in real GDP.
The economy – Outside North America
Global economic growth will decelerate to 3.0% in next year from 3.2% this year, according to IHS Markit, a provider of economic analytics. The report also notes the economy will become increasingly vulnerable to shocks.
The first quarter Manpower Employment Outlook Survey encompassed more than 60,000 employers around the world, including more than 12,500 in the US. Employers in all 13 national industry sectors forecast an increase in payrolls during the first quarter. Employers in the transportation and utilities sector reported the strongest hiring intentions for the first quarter, with 30% planning to increase hiring and a seasonally adjusted net employment outlook of 28%. Leisure and hospitality followed with a seasonally adjusted net employment outlook of 27%. The net employment outlook for professional and business services is also strong at 25%.
Nearly one-third of organizations plan to hire more IT staff next year, according to the 2019 State of IT Careers report released by Spiceworks, a network that includes millions of IT professionals. The report shows 29% of organizations plan to hire more IT staff in 2019, and cybersecurity skills are the most in demand.
The OECD unemployment rate was stable in October 2018 at 5.2%, unchanged from September and three percentage points below the January 2013 peak. Across the OECD countries, 33.2 million people were unemployed.
In Australia the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in November from 5.0% in the previous month. The number of employed persons rose by 37,000.
New Zealand’s government is raising the minimum wage to NZD 17.70 (USD 12.13) per hour effective 1 April 2019, the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment announced. The New Zealand Herald reported the increase is the biggest in history and will benefit 210,000 people. The increase is NZD 1.20 per hour more than the current minimum wage. In addition, the starting-out and training minimum wage rates will increase to NZD 14.16 (USD 9.70) per hour from NZD 13.20 per hour.
India‘s IT sector will add 250,000 jobs in 2019, according to a report in the Business Standard, citing data from staffing provider TeamLease. Diversity hiring will also become increasingly important.
The Euro area job vacancy rate rose to 2.1% in the third quarter from 1.9% in the third quarter of 2018, according to numbers released last week by Eurostat, the Statistical office of the European Union. In the 28-country European Union, the job vacancy rate rose to 2.2% in the third quarter of 2018 from 2.0% in the same quarter in 2017.
Japan‘s economy will expand at a rate of 0.9% next year after growing 0.8% this year. An expected rise in construction spending ahead of the 2020 Olympics will sustain growth next year, but the boost will fade by the end of the year.
China‘s economy will decelerate in 2019 to 6.3%. However, Chinese officials have released a series of monetary and fiscal measures to bolster growth and stabilise financial markets.
The labour market showed further signs of improvement in the third quarter, the Singapore Ministry of Manpower reported. Total employment, excluding foreign domestic workers, increased by 16,700 in the third quarter, up from growth of 6,500 in the previous quarter. Singapore’s overall unemployment rate edged up to 2.1% in September from 2.0% in June. All rates remained at or below those in September 2017; however, they were slightly higher than the two-year lows observed in March 2018, reflecting a continued inflow of job seekers into the labour market.
An additional 61,900 people were employed in Ireland in 2017, bringing total employment up to 2.19 million, according the "2018 National Skills Bulletin" released by SOLAS, the further education and training authority in Ireland. Ireland also issued approximately 9,400 new employment permits in 2017, an increase of 22% from the previous year. Most of the new permits went to workers in IT and healthcare.
Employment in South Africa fell by 16,000 jobs in the third quarter compared to the second for total employment of 9.7 million, Statistics South Africa reported. However, year-over-year, the number of jobs was up by 17,000 in the third quarter. The agency also reported earlier this month that the country’s recession ended as third-quarter GDP grew by 2.2% on a quarter-over-quarter basis in Q3 on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis.
UK Businesses are struggling to access the skills they need to thrive, with 39% of hiring managers finding that uncertainty around Brexit has directly impacted access to talent, according to survey data from talent acquisition and managed workforce solutions provider, Guidant Global.
Employment in Germany rose by 1.3% in the third quarter compared to the same quarter last year according to figures from the Institute for Labour Market and Professional Research (IAB). Employment also reached a new record level with more than 45 million people employed in the third quarter.
The third-quarter jobless rate in Thailand fell to 0.96%, down from 1.19% during the same period last year according to the National Economic and Social Development Board.