The economy – Canada
Canada added 53,700 jobs in September from August for total employment of almost 19.2 million, with growth in full-time jobs and among the self-employed, according to Statistics Canada. Employment in the private sector fell by 21,000, but the public sector gained 32,600 jobs. The number of self-employed rose by 42,100. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in September from 5.7% in August. In Ontario, 41,100 jobs were added, including 36,200 full-time jobs and 4,900 part-time jobs. The province’s unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in September from 5.6% in August.
The economy – US
Job growth in September in the US private sector showed signs of slowing compared to last year, according to the ADP National Employment Report. In September, the US added 135,000 nonfarm, private-sector jobs compared to 199,000 jobs the previous year.
The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence in the economy fell in the third quarter to its lowest reading since the first quarter of 2009. "Tariffs and trade issues, coupled with expectations of moderating global growth, are causing a heightened degree of uncertainty," said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. "As a result, more CEOs than last year say they have curtailed investment."
The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook provides information and projections for 325 occupation categories, accounting for approximately 80% of the jobs in the US economy. Employment in the Computer and Information Technology occupations group is projected to reach a scale of 5.0 million jobs by 2028, up 12.2% over the period. This represents an incremental 546,200 jobs and is well ahead of the 5.2% growth projected for total occupational employment.
US economic growth will continue in 2020, but the rate of growth will slow to below 2%, according to the macroeconomic forecast released today by the National Association for Business Economics.
In September, The Conference Board’s Employment Trend Index posted an increase following a slight decline in August — consistent with a still expanding but decelerating labor market. "Employment growth has clearly slowed in the past year, but the current pace of job creation remains strong enough to continue to tighten the labor market."
Employment growth will be slower during the upcoming decade, 2018-2028, but healthcare jobs are projected to represent 18 of the 30 fastest-growing occupations, according to an article by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. It forecast an annual growth rate in employment of 0.5% between 2018 and 2028; that’s slower than the annual growth rate of 0.8% between 2008 and 2018. The healthcare and social assistance sector will account for more than 40% of new jobs added by 2028.
The US Census Bureau launched its campaign to recruit temporary workers for the 2020 Census, which includes approximately 500,000 census takers.
IT jobs in the US grew by a net 5,600 year-over-year in September, representing a slow growth rate of 0.1%, the TechServe Alliance reported. In comparison, the number of engineering jobs rose by 52,000 year over year, with a growth rate of 1.99%.
The US economy expanded at a light to moderate pace, and employment and wages rose, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report. However, there was weakness in some areas, and California’s recently approved AB 5 law to get tough on independent contract misclassification will cost businesses.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US fell 0.1% in September to a reading of 111.9 following a decline of 0.2% in August and an increase of 0.4% in July. Its reading indicates a US economy that continues expanding, but more slowly into next year.
Economic growth is slowing while wage and salary growth fell to its slowest pace in four years, according to the October "Business Conditions Survey" from the National Association for Business Economics, a professional association of business economists.
Consumer confidence was relatively flat this month. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index edged down to a reading of 125.9 in October from 126.3 in September.
Growth in US real gross domestic product slowed to an annual rate of 1.9% in the third quarter, according to an advance estimate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP had increased 2.0% in the second quarter. The Conference Board reported the 1.9% growth was in line with its forecast.
The economy – Outside North America
The global economy is slowing, and the International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth forecast to 3% this year for the world, its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. "We estimate that the US-China trade tensions will cumulatively reduce the level of global GDP by 0.8% by 2020," it said. "Growth is also being weighed down by country-specific factors in several emerging market economies, and by structural forces, such as low productivity growth and aging demographics in advanced economies." It forecast US economic growth of 2.4% this year and 2.1% next year. In Canada, economic growth is expected to slow to 1.5% this year before growing 1.8% in 2020.
Overall, the global economy will avoid a recession — assuming no escalation of major geo-political risk — and improve in 2020, The Conference Board reported. However, a separate report by The Wall Street Journal found that 65.3% of private-sector economists said the US manufacturing sector is in a recession. Growth is expected to slow further.
The unemployment rate for OECD countries declined to 5.1% in August 2019, a 0.1% decrease when compared to the previous month and 0.2% when compared to the same period last year. The 5.1% rate is the lowest level since data became available for the OECD area in April 1998.
The euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stood at 7.5% in September 2019, down from 8.0% in September 2018, while the EU28 unemployment rate was 6.3% in September 2019, down from 6.7% in September 2018, according to data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. September’s EU28 unemployment rate remains the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since the start of the EU monthly unemployment series in January 2000.
Japan’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stood at 2.2% in August 2019, down 0.2% when compared to the same period last year, according to data from Statistics Japan.
Germany‘s unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.9% in September when compared to the previous year, according to data from the Federal Employment Agency.
Labour productivity in the UK, as measured by output per hour, fell by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2019 ended June 2019 when compared with the same quarter of the previous year, according to new data released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). This follows two previous quarters of zero growth.
Nearly a quarter, or 24%, of employees in Poland are considering moving abroad next year for work, according to Randstad Poland and Polskie HR Forum. The data showed that of those who are considering moving abroad 4% plan to move permanently while 10% plan to move for a fixed period (from six months to two years) and 10% are not sure for how long. The main reason why employees consider economic emigration is the desire to get a better-paid job on better terms, with 63% of those surveyed citing this as a factor.
Singapore has overtaken the US as the world’s most competitive economy, according to the World Economic Forums’ 2019 Global Talent Competitiveness Index. The Index provides an annual assessment of the drivers of productivity and long-term economic growth. With a score of 84.8 (+1.3), Singapore is the world’s most competitive economy in 2019, overtaking the US, which falls to second place. Hong Kong (3rd), Netherlands (4th) and Switzerland (5th) round up the top five.
The number of jobs available in London decreased by 37% in the third quarter ended in September 2019 when compared to a year ago, according to the London Employment Monitor report by recruitment firm Morgan McKinley. At the same time there was a 25% decrease in professionals seeking jobs.
Australia‘s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in September 2019 stood at 5.2%, up 0.2% when compared to the same period the previous year, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong stood at 2.9% for the period from July to September 2019, same as that of the previous period from June to August 2019, according to figures from the Census and Statistics Department.
China‘s job market remained generally stable in the first nine months of the year, reports Xinhua, citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics. A total of 10.97 million new urban jobs were created during the period, meeting 99.7% of this year’s target, according to the bureau. Xinhua also reported that China’s GDP expanded 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2019. The growth was in line with the government’s annual target of 6%-6.5% set for 2019. In the third quarter, the country’s GDP rose 6%, year-on-year. The Chinese economy has maintained overall stability, the Bureau stated, while acknowledging that China faces downward pressure amid slower global economic growth and more external uncertainties.
Corporate India’s hiring intention for IT professionals for the next six months decreased by 5.87% from the previous six months as demand for talent with new skill sets for the future is reshaping the tech job market, according to a report from Experis IT. The report added that a huge talent shortage can be expected by the year 2021, in part due to approximately 200,000 jobs in Artificial Intelligence and Big Data.
The unemployment rate in Taiwan increased by 0.04% in September 2019 to 3.80% when compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Directorate General of Budget Accounting & Statistics.
Singapore‘s labour market saw total employment grow in the third quarter when compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the overall unemployment rate rose slightly, according to the Ministry of Manpower’s latest report, ‘Labour Force in Singapore Advance Release Q3 2019.’ The seasonally adjusted unemployment rates inched up over the quarter in September 2019. This was seen at the overall (from 2.2% to 2.3%), as well as among residents (from 3.1% to 3.2%) and citizens (from 3.2% to 3.3%). When compared to the previous year the overall unemployment rate increased by 0.2%.
Staffing giant Randstad is forecasting this year’s Christmas campaign in Spain will generate more than 453,000 jobs, a record high.
Employers’ confidence in the UK economy has dropped to its joint-lowest level since mid-2016, according to a report from the Recruitment & Employment Confederation. This is only the second time that confidence in the economy has dropped to this level since REC records began in 2016.