The job indicators in Canada
Following three consecutive months of little change, Canada added 81,100 jobs in August, according to seasonally adjusted data from Statistics Canada. On a year-over-year basis, the number of jobs was up by 471,300. The unemployment rate remained at 5.7% in August.
Canada added 49,300 jobs in August compared to July with gains in nearly all industries, according to the ADP Canada National Employment report released today by the ADP Research Institute.
The job indicators in the US
The skills gap is growing, and more executives prefer hiring gig workers, according to survey data from 600 HR executives released by Wiley Education Services and Future Workplace, an HR advisory firm. They found that 64% of HR executives said there was a skills gap in their companies this year, up from 52% in a similar report last year. In addition, 44% said it was more difficult to fill their skills gap this year than it was last year, and 42% said the skills gap was making their companies less efficient.
The US labour market bounced back in August with the private sector adding 195,000 jobs, according to the ADP National Employment Report.
On balance, the economy expanded at a "modest pace" through the end of August, according to The Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve. Although concerns regarding tariffs and trade policy continued, the majority of businesses remained optimistic about the near-term outlook.
Economic activity in the US nonmanufacturing sector expanded in August at a faster pace than in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index. ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose in August to a reading of 56.4 from July’s reading of 53.7, representing continued growth in the nonmanufacturing sector at a faster rate
The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index edged down in August. The decline was fueled by negative contributions from three of the eight components: Ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers, percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now, and initial claims for unemployment insurance.
The Business Roundtable reported Monday that its CEO Economic Outlook Index fell to a reading of 79.2 for the third quarter, down 10.3 points from the previous quarter. "This quarter’s survey shows American businesses now have their foot poised above the brake, and they’re tapping the brake periodically," said Joshua Bolten, president and CEO of the Business Roundtable. "Uncertainty is preventing the full potential of the economy from being unleashed, limiting growth and investment here in the US."
Consistent with a slow — but still expanding — economy, The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index held steady in August. August’s reading on the Leading Economic Index was 112.1, the same as July. However, the index had risen 0.4% in July following no change in June.
The number of technology jobs in the US rose 0.08% year-over-year in August representing an additional 4,300 workers on a net basis, according to the TechServe Alliance, the national trade association of the IT and engineering staffing and solutions industry.
Trade tensions appear to have had an impact on consumers, with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index falling in September. At some point, the continued uncertainty is expected to start to diminish consumers’ confidence in the economic expansion. The index level fell to 125.1 in September from 134.2 in August.
The US economy will slow with real GDP growth easing to 0.4% in the second half of next year — stopping just short of a recession — before rebounding to 2.1% in 2021, according to the latest University of California Los Angeles Anderson Forecast.
US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the second quarter, according to the third estimate from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was unchanged from the previous estimate. GDP had risen 3.1% in the first quarter.
Consumer sentiment bounced back in September, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Job gains almost offset tariff concerns. However, consumers do not anticipate the economy will fall into a recession next year. The Index rose in September to a reading of 93.2, up from 89.8 in August. However, the reading is below September 2018’s reading of 100.1.
The job indicators outside North America
The OECD announced that the unemployment rate for its member countries remained stable at 5.2% in July 2019 when compared to the previous month. Across the OECD area, 33.3 million people were unemployed.
The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stood at 7.5% in July 2019, down from 8.1% in July 2018. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since July 2008. At the same time, the EU28 unemployment rate was 6.3% in July 2019, down from 6.8% in July 2018. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since the start of the EU monthly unemployment series in January 2000, according to data published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
Employers’ hiring intentions in the UK for the June to August period have remained positive despite a decline in business confidence, according to the latest JobsOutlook report from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and ComRes. During the August quarter, 30% more employers felt that economic conditions were worsening rather than improving (net: -30), a fall of 4% on the previous rolling quarter. In contrast, the balance of confidence in making hiring/investment decisions improved by 1%, edging it back into positive territory (net: +1).
The unemployment rate in the Philippines stood at 5.4% in July 2019, unchanged from a year ago, according to data from the Philippines Statistics Authority.
The Swiss-registered unemployment rate stood at 2.4% in August 2019 steady when compared to the same period in 2018, according to figures from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO).
Employment in New Zealand is projected to grow by an average of 1.4%, adding an estimated 39,400 workers on average per annum to the workforce over the 10 years to 2028, according to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s ‘Medium to Long-Term Employment Outlook: Looking ahead to 2028’. New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by 0.5% in the June quarter to 3.9% when compared to the same period last year.
In the second quarter of 2019, the total number of jobs in the private sector in Malaysia totaled 8.62 million, an increase of 145,000 when compared to the same quarter last year, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia.
The number of temporary employees in South Korea fell to 4.85 million in August 2019, a decrease of 0.04% when compared to the same period last year, according to data published from Statistics Korea. When compared to the previous month, the number of temporary employees in South Korea fell by 1.24%. At the same time, the unemployment rate stood at 3.0% in August, down 1.0% year-on-year. The number of unemployed persons totaled 858,000 in August, which decreased 275,000 persons or 24.3%, year-on-year.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong stood at 2.9% for the period from June to August 2019, same as that of the previous period from May to July 2019, according to figures from the Census and Statistics Department.
China‘s job market remained generally stable in the first eight months of the year, with the number of newly created jobs achieving 89.5% of this year’s target, reports China.org.cn, citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics. A total of 9.84 million new urban jobs were created during the January-August period. At the same time, the surveyed urban unemployment rate dropped 0.1% to 5.2% in August.
Australia‘s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in August 2019 stood at 5.3%, no change when compared to the same period the previous year, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data also showed that there were 716,800 unemployed persons in August, an increase of 2.2% compared to the same period last year.
Malaysia‘s jobless rate stood at 3.3% in July 2019, down 0.1% when compared to July 2018, according to data published by the Department of Statistics Malaysia.